The realised term structure
What Bitcoin-collateralised borrowing has actually cost, by how long it was actually held.
One complex, three instrument families
Bitcoin credit is one market with three instrument families, and Gavel is one venue inside one of them. These panels summarise each and link through to the detail; nothing here replaces those pages.
Financing
Financing detail →Collateral, debt and the loan-level series.
Bitcoin collateral locked · bcl
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Bitcoin-collateralised debt · bcd
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Aggregate loan-to-collateral · bclv
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Origination flow · bco
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Repayment flow · bcr
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Liquidation volume · blq
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Realised tenor distribution · rtd
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Rollover rate · rrr
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Liquidation incidence · lir
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Venue concentration · vci
NOT YET PUBLISHED — W4
HHI over outstanding debt. Needs debt attributed per venue rather than bounded — Morpho alone cannot produce a concentration measure, since concentration is a statement about the other venues.
Collateral mix share · cms
NOT YET PUBLISHED — W4
WBTC / cbBTC / tBTC / LBTC split by venue. Morpho's share is computable today; the series is the split ACROSS venues, so it waits for Aave, Compound and Sky.
Universe figures for collateral and debt; the loan-level series are Morpho Blue only.
Corporate
Bitcoin borrowed by listed treasury companies.
Corporate BTC debt outstanding · cbd
NOT YET PUBLISHED — R11
The corporate layer is not ingested.
Weighted maturity · cwm
NOT YET PUBLISHED — R11
Debt-to-holdings · cdl
NOT YET PUBLISHED — R11
Refinancing wall · crw
NOT YET PUBLISHED — R11
Convertible conversion premium · ccp
NOT YET PUBLISHED — R11
Issuer count
NOT YET PUBLISHED — R11
Every metric here is declared pending rather than omitted — the panel exists so the shape of what is missing is visible.
Gavel
All indicators →One venue in the financing family, and the only one whose rate is discovered by auction.
Curve F in detail — the realised financing curve
This is a construction, not a quoted curve. These venues issue no fixed-term loan and quote no fixed rate, so this curve is a construction. A point at tenor t is the debt-weighted annualised cost actually paid by positions whose REALISED HOLDING PERIOD fell in that band. Both halves are measured: the holding period is the reconstructed residence spell, and the cost is the growth of the market's borrow index across exactly that spell, checked against contract state at intermediate blocks. The tenor axis is therefore a realised holding period and NOT a maturity — the curve says what borrowing for about that long has cost, not that a rate can be locked for that long. Rates are continuously compounded; effective APY is exp(r) − 1.
One venue, not the market. Computed from Morpho Blue only, on Ethereum and Base. Not market-wide: Aave v3 is mid-backfill and Compound v3 and Sky are not ingested, so every cross-venue reading — including the shape question this programme calls Checkpoint B — remains open.
Positions open at some point in the 90 days before the as-of date: the term structure prevailing then. This is the basis a replay should read.
BTC-USD · as of 2026-08-05
debt-weighted ratemedian ratep25 – p75 across positions
Share of borrowing reaching each tenor
Every point carries S(t), the share of borrowing reaching that tenor, from the same Kaplan-Meier estimator the rtd series is published from. It is there because bucketing by realised duration under-populates the long tenors with exactly the positions that have not finished yet — the same censoring that puts the naive median at 11.0 days against a survival-adjusted 84.5. On the trailing basis S(t) is length-biased upward, because conditioning on having been alive in the window over-samples long-lived positions; the cumulative basis carries the unbiased reading.
The same figures, as a table · 2026-08-05
| Held for | Rate | Median | Positions | Debt | Reach it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3 days | 4.25% | 4.74% | 1,467 | $8m | 93.7% |
| 3–7 days | 3.99% | 4.76% | 1,929 | $13m | 91.4% |
| 7–14 days | 4.56% | 4.91% | 2,319 | $19m | 88.8% |
| 14–30 days | 4.39% | 4.84% | 3,836 | $34m | 86.3% |
| 30–60 days | 4.21% | 4.81% | 5,805 | $151m | 83.1% |
| 60–90 days | 4.57% | 4.84% | 4,686 | $70m | 80.0% |
| 90–180 days | 4.18% | 4.69% | 9,103 | $377m | 78.0% |
| 180–270 days | 4.64% | 4.76% | 6,638 | $153m | 73.9% |
| 270–365 days | 5.15% | 5.36% | 4,645 | $160m | 71.2% |
| 365–545 days | 5.49% | 5.65% | 6,058 | $196m | 68.7% |
| 545–730 days | 4.80% | 5.63% | 277 | $17m | 62.8% |
| 730–1100 days | 5.37% | 5.51% | 36 | $6m | 45.0% |
Rates are continuously compounded; effective APY is exp(r) − 1.